Sunday, November 27, 2011

Tom Brady's production came almost exclusively in garbage time in the 28-21 playoff loss

By Evans Collins


Bitter AFC East foes rekindle their strong dislike for one another when the Jets travel to Foxboro to clash with the Patriots on Sunday afternoon.

Last January the Jets halted the momentum of Tom Brady and the Patriots offense. Tom Brady's production came almost exclusively in garbage time in the 28-21 playoff loss, and it was just 41 days after the Patriots had embarrassed the Jets on Monday Night Football, 45-3. This year, the Jets have been shaky on defense while Brady is hitting on all cylinders. However, even with its o-line issues, New York should move the ball against a Patriots defense that can't create pressure and will be without its best player (LB Jerod Mayo). This might come down to whether Rex Ryan and the Jets have anything new they can throw at Brady, but these teams are much more even than the spread would indicate, with the Jets going 4-2 (SU and ATS) in the past six meetings. The pick here is NEW YORK to keep this game close enough to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Jets as the play. Play On - Any team (N.Y. JETS) - after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after a win by 10 or more points. (37-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.5%, +23.8 units. Rating = 3*).

The FoxSheets provide a four-star trend expecting this game to finish OVER the total. N.Y. JETS are 11-1 OVER (91.7%, +9.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 2 seasons. The average score was NY JETS 26.0, OPPONENT 22.1 - (Rating = 4*).

Mark Sanchez hasn't usually played well in this rivalry (5 TD, 7 INT in regular season), but he did throw three touchdowns and no picks in the playoff upset last year. However, Sanchez is coming off a brutal performance in Baltimore, where he completed just 11-of-35 passes for 119 yards (3.4 YPA), 0 TD and 1 INT. Prior to last week's debacle, Sanchez was averaging 295 passing YPG with six touchdowns and four picks. The Jets' inability to rush the football has been truly baffling. They ranked fourth in the NFL with 148 rushing YPG last season, but are currently third-worst in the league with 71 rushing YPG and 3.1 yards per carry. The absence of C Nick Mangold (ankle) is a big reason for the decline, but he could return to action on Sunday. WR Plaxico Burress (elbow) is the other main offensive player that is questionable due to injury. The defense has also been terrible against the run, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards in the NFL (131 YPG). On the positive side, the passing defense has been stellar, ranking second in the league with 180 passing YPG allowed.

Tom Brady is 13-5 all-time against the Jets during the regular season, with 219 passing YPG, 22 TD and 9 INT in these meetings. Although Brady has an uncharacteristic five interceptions this year, he has also thrown for 1,553 yards (388 YPG) and 13 touchdowns in four games. Wes Welker continues to get open at will, with an NFL-best 40 catches for 616 yards. The Patriots made a huge commitment to the run last week, and it paid off big-time.

They racked up 183 yards on 30 carries (6.1 YPC) and now rank ninth in the league in rushing (123 YPG). In addition to having its best defensive player, Mayo, out for six weeks with a sprained MCL, New England could also be without two key players on offense. TE Aaron Hernandez is questionable to return to the lineup because of a knee injury, and RB Danny Woodhead has also missed practice time this week with an ankle injury.




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